Cyber Surge The Conundrum of the Mortals
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Leigh, The cardinal could be an exacting taskmaster, demanding a continuous flow of reports from his spies and diplomats and on occasion asking them to fine-tune their behavior in accordance with the personality traits of their foreign interlocutors. Olivares, for example, was known to be of a singularly choleric disposition. Richelieu therefore advised his ambassador to do everything he could to irritate the thin-skinned Spaniard, in the hope that he would accidentally betray his intentions in a fit of anger. This particular ploy is mentioned by Richelieu in his memoirs.
William R. Essays in Honor of Professor Ragnhild Hatton , ed. Gibbs et al. For a good overview of these tensions, see J. See Peter H. See, Elliott, Richelieu and Olivares , For a more granular overview of the military costs and tactics of the conflict see Thomas F. Pretending to give it up during the negotiations settling the Mantuan succession, Richelieu ordered a task force of French soldiers concealed in the subterranean levels of the castle to rapidly neutralize the Savoyard garrison as soon as imperial forces left the vicinity.
The Savoyards were then discreetly pressured into permanently ceding the fortress to France. See, Jeffrey K. Interestingly, Richelieu was a strong proponent of this relatively enlightened approach. Even a cursory reading of the writings and correspondence of early modern statesmen such as Olivares and Richelieu makes it clear, however, that — at least in their eyes — there was no debate to be had. See, Robert S.
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See also James T. The fact that successful state-building often rests on the outcome of complex — and sometimes violent — negotiations between entrenched elites is something that has also been explored in the contemporary security studies literature. See, for example, Jacqueline L. These uprisings were often supported by local nobles, who sometimes even put their castles at the disposal of the croquants.
See, J. Paul M. The famously centrally appointed intendants, were clearly not impartial agents of royal absolutism as once thought, yet they did ensure money reached the treasury, troops were paid, and warships equipped. Elliott and L. S Brockliss, eds. Asch, The Thirty Years War , Burt Company, Edition , Posen and Andrew L. On the importance of certain exceptional individuals in shaping grand strategy, see Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. William F. Truman to George W.
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To achieve their ends, men must move quickly and in good time; they must make haste among immediate, transitory things. Peter Trubowitz et al. New York: Columbia University Press, , See also the seminal work, Richard Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein, eds. For example, Mazarin was more expansionist in Italy, Alsace, and the Netherlands.
Robert Osgood made a similar observation in the s, when he lamented what he perceived as being a U. Antoine Adam et al.
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Paris: Hachette, , Yet, the Agreement remains one of the most important examples of how a decades-long sectarian conflict can come to an end. Why then yet another article on this topic? In particular, I want to examine the interaction between structural factors such as demographics, economics, and the end of the Cold War , the peace process, and efforts made by key individuals involved in the process. In any analysis of this kind, the question of agency looms heavily. The Northern Ireland peace process involved many remarkable, dynamic individuals, in and out of government, who populate the narrative.
It is relatively easy to describe the decisions these individuals made, while it is somewhat more complex to explain their motivations and calculus although memoirs abound, there is always danger that the accounts are self-serving.
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The very vividness of the first-hand accounts of events and the colorful personalities of the central players may contribute to over-attribution of causality. For this reason, I begin my analysis by examining the broader, structural factors, before delving into the specifics of the negotiators and the negotiation. I then turn to the motivations and goals of the principal actors: the political parties in Northern Ireland, civil society, and the three governments involved the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the United States.
Finally, my analysis turns to some conclusions about how to assess the impact of the various factors and the potential implications of that analysis for future peace processes. The Historic, Economic, and Social Context The conflict in Northern Ireland — the Troubles — in its violent form spanned three decades, from about to It led to the loss of thousands of lives and even more casualties, affecting Catholics and Protestants; paramilitaries and civilians in the North; British security forces serving in Northern Ireland, England, and on the European continent; and British civilians who were victims of IRA attacks in England.
The violence caused billions of dollars of economic harm and left deep social and psychological scars. The source of the Northern Ireland conflict was, in part, political — the legacy of the dispute among Irish nationalists about whether to accept, even temporarily, the partition of Ireland.
It was also social and economic. While Catholics made up most of the island, Protestants composed the majority in the six Ulster provinces. For historic and geographic reasons, the counties of Ulster were more industrialized and prosperous than the more rural south, and wealth and political power was largely controlled by Protestant elites.
But just as the violence erupted in the s, societal and economic forces began to change this equation. Differential birth rates and patterns of emigration led to a relative increase in the Catholic population of Ulster. Immediately after the partition in , the percentage of Catholics in Ulster was just under 35 percent,  but by the time of the census the proportion had risen to The growing Catholic population meant that Catholics — if they chose to participate — would have a growing voice in the politics of the province, even under a pure majoritarian governance model without a formal power-sharing arrangement.
During the second half of the 20th century, the economy of the Irish Republic was transformed, fueled to a considerable degree by the entry of Ireland and the United Kingdom into the European Union in By , GDP per capita in Northern Ireland was less than half that of the Republic, although this figure, in part, reflects the outsized role of multinationals in the South. But even by more conservative estimates, the standard of living today is at least relatively comparable, North and South.
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This was particularly true for border districts, which were among the poorest parts of both North and South. This trend accelerated with completion of the Single European Act in , which both deepened economic ties among E. Some have suggested that the end of the Cold War reduced the salience of the U. The Social Democratic and Labour Party SDLP , formed in out of several smaller parties, was also committed to a united Ireland, but foreswore the use of force and focused much of its attention on the civil and political rights of Catholics under British rule.
The SDLP believed that simply forcing the British out would not solve the problem — without the support of the unionist community, unification would simply continue the violent civil war albeit under Irish rather than British sovereignty. The party emphasized the necessity for the Republic of Ireland to play a formal role in decision-making for the North. The two parties and their charismatic leaders, Adams and John Hume, respectively were political rivals in the s, contesting local elections in the North.
Although Sinn Fein had some electoral success in its early efforts, its share of the nationalist vote fell throughout the s and early s, and, despite early fears, Sinn Fein was not successful in overtaking the SDLP until after the signing of the Agreement.
Analysts and historians have offered a number of complementary explanations for this crucial development. We both recognise that such a new agreement is only achievable and viable if it can earn and enjoy the allegiance of the different traditions on this island, by accommodating diversity and providing for national reconciliation.
Most importantly, they led to the IRA ceasefire of Although this was not the first announced ceasefire, and although it did not last the Canary Wharf bombing brought it to an end , it was seen both then and subsequently as a decisive shift in the trajectory of the conflict. The exact nature of the ties between the two groups was and remains hotly disputed, both in the lead-up to the Agreement and its implementation. Led from the mids to the mids by James Molyneux, a strong figure who served as a member of parliament in Westminster, the UUP held uncompromising attitudes on the important issues facing Ulster: It opposed greater involvement and a greater voice for Catholics through power sharing in Ulster institutions including in the short-lived provincial parliament, created in , reforming the Royal Ulster Constabulary seen by many Catholics as a sectarian force , and giving the Republic of Ireland a role in Northern Ireland affairs.
Unionism had been excluded from the decision-making process since Throughout that period, direct rule [by the U. Policy decisions had been taken on a whole range of issues that were not in the interest of Unionism. Although Trimble had a long history in unionist politics, he was largely overshadowed by other prominent UUP leaders, both among unionist members of parliament and constituency figures. His involvement in the Drumcree Orange Order parade in propelled his rise to the top, burnishing his apparently hardline unionist credentials by ostentatiously defying the British attempt to limit a Protestant parade through a Catholic neighborhood.
The second leading party on the unionist side was the DUP, formed in the s. Led by the fiery Presbyterian minister, Reverend Ian Paisley, the DUP was even more rigid in rejecting any accommodation with either the nationalists in Northern Ireland especially through power sharing or with the Irish government in the South.
The DUP largely boycotted the peace negotiations, in part because it insisted on a complete and credible renunciation of violence and prior decommissioning before sitting down with any of the parties linked to paramilitaries republican or loyalist. Ironically, following the Agreement, the longest period of stable devolved government in Northern Ireland came during a time when the DUP shared power with Sinn Fein — Although the loyalists were, during the s and s, the most militant of the Protestant groups, they also suffered the most from the fighting — and their decision, much like that of the IRA, to turn from violence to political negotiations gave significant momentum to the peace process.
The first evidence of this new orientation emerged in the form of a split between the two principal loyalist groups, the Ulster Defense Association, which remained committed to violence, and the Ulster Volunteer Force, which began to advocate for negotiations. Ultimately, both groups declared a ceasefire shortly after the IRA ceasefire of Aug. The Alliance was the only political party that sought votes from both the nationalist and unionist constituencies. Its leader, Lord John Alderdice, was an active participant in the all-party negotiation.
These groups frequently complained that their representatives were excluded from key discussions, both formal and informal. It is hard to assess their specific impact on the signing of the Agreement.
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Individual clergy, notably one Catholic priest, Father Alec Reid, did at times play a significant role. In , the British government proposed a new approach, the Sunningdale Agreement, returning most of the previous powers other than security to a reformed Northern Ireland Assembly, which would take decisions under a power-sharing arrangement between unionists and nationalists. Sunningdale also included a role for the Republic of Ireland in the form of North-South bodies designed to foster cooperation across the island.
Each of these elements were to feature prominently, 25 years later, in the Agreement. While Sunningdale was narrowly embraced by the UUP under its leader Brian Faulkner as well as by the SDLP , grass roots unionist opposition crushed the agreement and pushed Faulkner from his leadership role. Her hardline instincts were reinforced by the IRA attack on the Tory party conference in Brighton in which she narrowly escaped and a key advisor was killed.
Although her goal was to gain Irish support for a tougher crackdown on the IRA, her willingness to accept an Irish role in Northern Ireland affairs stunned unionists and helped fuel a sense that devolution regional self-government and power-sharing, rather than dependence on Westminster, was a more reliable means of protecting unionist interests. Major indisputably demonstrated considerable courage in engaging with his Irish counterparts and indirectly with the IRA.